Don’t predict
Secret to failure
Secret to failure
People take more risks due to random numerical forecasts. All predictions are wrong.
Making things more robust to forecasts errors or even exploiting the errors is the right focus. For example cash reserve in bank makes businesses immune to the events such as pandemic, wars, market crash. However, businesses with debt wilt under the pressure. Focusing on the right size of the firms also make them prone to failures.
Taleb writes in Antifragile, “What is non-measurable and non-predictable will remain non-measurable and non-predictable, no matter how many PhDs with Russian and Indian names you put on the job.”
Businesses should not blame their failures to the inability to see an event coming such as financial crisis or epidemic. Instead, it should avoid the failure of building fragile businesses.